The approximate fall in shares of Whole Foods on Wednesday, vaporizing more than $3 billion of the natural and organic grocer’s market value, after it reduced its sales and earnings outlook for the third time in six months.
(Source: Wall Street Journal)
Is the US dollar headed for a fall despite positive economic data recently?
Stronger than expected non-farm payrolls and a surging composite PMI data were not enough to send real interest rates higher. Treasury yields have fallen due to Ukrainian tensions and weaker than expected PMI data from China. The net effect of these developments has been a weaker US dollar, which looks to be in danger of falling to its lowest levels in two years on a trade-weighted basis.
The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product (GDP) only advanced at a 0.1 percent annualized rate in the first three months of the year. According to the Wall Street Journal, economists on average were anticipating at least 1.1 percent growth. While this proved to be one of the weakest quarters for economic growth in the last five years, there were some bright spots in the report, such as total consumer spending rising by 3 percent. Most of the drag was a result of a 2.1 percent decline from business investment spending, which is being attributed to poor weather conditions. While weak business spending could prove to be temporary, the most concerning part of the report was that U.S. exports declined by 7.6 percent, the largest decline since the recession. This portion of the report should be met with some concern considering weakness in other economies around the world could end up being a rather large deterrent to U.S. economic growth, just as domestic consumption is starting to show some durability.
(Source: Wall Street Journal)
Average U.S. annual household spending on telephone, pay-TV and Internet service in 2012—suggesting that consumers have a lot on the line as three potential telecom deals hove into view.
This is a big peeve of mine. My family actually spends twice the above amount if you include cell phones! And we thought we had deflation in technology and communications!
(Source: Wall Street Journal)
Domestic equity markets were a study in contrasts in April, with significant divergence among various segments of the market. The key story of the month was the continued rotation in leadership within market capitalizations as well as growth-value dimensions. In addition, Internet-related growth stocks suffered declines as investors assessed whether those companies would live up to their high current valuations. Geopolitical tensions remained at the forefront of investors’ minds, with Russia continuing its saber-rattling in regards to Ukraine. Economic data began to thaw with the weather, posting slightly better results than during the first three months of the year. Employment gains in April were 288,000, the fastest growth in almost two years, and far exceeding analyst expectations. In addition, the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3% from 6.7%.
With this as a backdrop, stocks posted mixed results. The S&P 500 rose +0.7% for the month, and the Dow Jones Industrials gained +0.9%. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index again lost ground, declining -2.0%. The divergence between the Russell 1000 Index of large cap stocks and Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks increased during the month, with returns of +0.5% and -3.9%, respectively. Value stocks extended their outperformance relative to growth stocks. In terms of sector performance, energy was the strongest performer on a relative basis, gaining +5.2%, while financials were the poorest performers, posting a decline of -1.5%.
International equity markets also posted mixed results in April. The MSCI World ex-U.S. Index gained +1.4% for the month. Emerging markets also held their own again last month, advancing lightly, yet underperforming developed markets. Analysts remain concerned about the growth prospects in emerging economies, which may remain subdued as the Federal Reserve continues to taper its quantitative easing program. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained +0.4% for the month. The MSCI EAFE Index, which measures developed markets performance, generated slightly better performance, returning +1.5% for the month, as the Russia-Ukraine tensions remained elevated but not yet escalating. Regionally, Latin America and Europe were the best performers on a relative basis, with the MSCI EM Latin America Index and the MSCI Europe Index gaining +2.8% and +2.6%, respectively. Eastern Europe and Japan were among the poorest performers, with results of -4.5% and -2.6%, respectively.
Fixed-income markets were almost all high in April, with economic data remaining somewhat soft coming out of the severe winter. The Fed continued its pace of tapering of its asset purchase program during the month, reducing purchases by an additional $10 billion. In this environment, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended the month at 2.65%, down slightly from the 2.72% the level of March 31st. Broad-based fixed-income indices posted returns in April, with the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index advancing +0.8% for the month. Global fixed-income markets were also higher, with the Barclays Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Index returning +1.3% for the month. Intermediate-term corporate bonds were also strong, as the Barclays U.S. Corporate 5-10 Year Index generated a gain of +1.2%. The Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index posted a gain of +0.6% for the month. Municipals continued their recent robust performance, advancing +1.2%.
Yesterday we noted stagnant price growth in Europe, but the environment in the US is hardly inflationary. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation metric, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure index (PCE), grew 1.2% Y/Y in March, in-line with expectations and slightly higher than February. Janet Yellen and company really need this index to turn higher as they continue to withdraw stimulus from the economy. The FOMC sounded optimistic about growth after yesterday’s meeting, where it cut monthly asset purchases to $45bn. If PCE indicators were to fall from current levels, it would be interesting to see whether the Fed would reverse course by increasing asset purchases or opt for a new strategy.
(Source: GBI)
