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U.S. Equity Markets: Bull or Bear?

By General

We believe that it is hard to determine precisely whether you are at the end of a Bull run or at the beginning of a Bear cycle. However, one can look at a panoply of macro factors that might help in making a decision one way or the other. It is also possible that the two scenarious balance out and put you in a Neutral Zone. 

Factors that favor a continuing of the current Bull Market:

  • Continuing of current accomodative global monetary policy
  • U.S labor market continues to improve
  • U.S. auto sector continues to grow
  • U.S. housing affordability still attractive in most markets
  • Muted inflation
  • U.S. Current Account and Federal Budget deficits continue to shrink
  • Renaissance in U.S. energy production and manufacturing
  • U.S. corporations sitting on over $2 Trillion in cash
  • M&A and IPO activity picking up
  • Equity market valuations are reasonable particularly on a relative basis to bonds
  • Europe starting to grow its economy
  • China growth stabilizing alongwith other emerging markets like India and Brazil

Factors that Bears are making in support of a coming Bear Market:

  • Slow job improvement compared to past economic recoveries
  • Political and regulatory uncertainty continues hindering global capital investment and employment growth
  • End of QE in the U.S. prompting discussion of how equities might crash in a rapidly rising interest rate environment
  • High corporate profit margins might not be sustainable
  • Momentum investors have driven the valuations for many internet oriented and biotech stocks to very steep levels that might not be sustainable
  • U.S. IPOs might be showing signs of excessive speculation
  • U.S. equity markets have not had a 10% plus correction in over 30 months vs. a historical average of 18 months
  • 2nd quarters are usually the worst on both a price change and frequency of decline basis since WWII for the S&P 500

We are in a neutral zone with a bias towards Equities and Risk Managed asset classes on a relative and absolute return basis.

$2.1 Trillion in Untaxed Profits held Abroad by U.S. Corporations

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More than $2 trillion in foreign profits were held by U.S. corporations abroad in 2013, says Reuters.

U.S. corporations do not pay income tax on their overseas profits (something known as income tax deferral) unless they bring those profits back into the United States.

  • Between 2008 and 2013, the amount of profits held overseas by American corporations almost doubled.
  • General Electric alone had $110 billion overseas, followed by Microsoft (at $76.4 billion), Pfizer (at $69 billion) and Merck (at $57.1 billion).

This corporate tax issue has been at the center of congressional debate on tax reform. Some lawmakers have advocated getting rid of offshore deferral, and others have pushed for a “tax holiday” that would allow these corporations to bring foreign profits back into the United States at a low tax rate. Democratic Senator Max Baucus, former finance committee chairman, had made a number of tax reform proposals before leaving to become ambassador to China. Senator Ron Wyden has taken over Baucus’ post.

Analysts do not anticipate any real reform action until after the mid-term elections in November, but Americans can expect to see a push for a tax code overhaul in 2015.

Source: Kevin Drawbaugh and Patrick Temple-West, “Untaxed U.S. Corporate Profits Held Overseas Top $2.1 Trillion: Study,” Reuters, April 8, 2014.

Are the U.S. Equity Markets Over Valued?

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Every time the equity markets hit a new high, doubts begin to arise if the markets are getting too toppy/frothy. It is usually a good time to take a step back and put things in perspective. A good comparison is usually done by going back in time to when the markets peaked in March 2000. In that light, David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, looked at some data going back to March 2000 when the technology bubble peaked and subsequenty burst. I was really close to this time period, having moved to Silicon Valley to join a team doing late stage, pre-IPO, tech venture investing.

“Veteran investors will recall the S&P  500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq peaked in March 2000.  The indices eventually fell by 50% and 75%, respectively. It took the S&P 500 seven years to recover and establish a new high, but the  Nasdaq still remains 25% below its all-time peak reached 14 years ago.”

However, according to Kostin, there are six ways in which the two episodes differ:

Recent returns are less dramatic. Although the trailing 12-month returns are similar (22% today versus 18% in 2000), the trailing 3-year and 5-year returns are much lower (51% vs. 107% and 161% vs. 227%, respectively).

Valuation is not nearly as stretched. S&P 500 currently trades at a forward P/E of 16x compared with 25x at the peak in 2000. The price/book ratio is 2.7x versus 6.Xx. The EV/sales is currently 1.8x compared with 2.7x in 2000.

More balanced market. The reason it is called the “Tech Bubble” is that 14% of the earnings of the S&P 500 came from Tech in 2000 but it accounted for 33% of the equity cap of the index. Today Tech contributes 19% of both earnings and market cap. Top five stocks in 2000 were 18% vs. 11% today.

Earnings growth expectations are far less aggressive. Bottom-up 2014 consensus EPS growth currently equals 9%, close to our top-down forecast of 8%. In 2000, consensus expected EPS growth equaled 17%.

Interest rates are dramatically lower. 3-month Treasury yields were 5.9% in 2000 vs. 0.05% today while ten-year yields were 6.0% vs. 2.7% today. The yield curve was inverted by 47 bp. Today the slope equals +229 bp.

Less new issuance. During 1Q 2000, 115 IPOs were completed for proceeds of $18 billion. In 1Q 2014, 63 completed deals raised $11 billion.

Kostin says based on historical patterns, momentum stocks are unlikely to rebound, but the broader market should still be set for modest returns going forward.

(Sources: Goldman Sachs, Business Insider)

Sequoia Capital on the Forbes Midas List

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Some number highlights copied from the Forbes article below:

The past year Sequoia’s scrappy methods have produced the firm’s biggest gains ever. A record nine Sequoia partners appear on the FORBES Midas List of the most successful venture capitalists, thanks to the firm’s lucrative investment in companies such as Airbnb, Dropbox, FireEye, Palo Alto Networks, Stripe, Square and WhatsApp. At the No. 1 spot is Sequoia partner Jim Goetz, who backed WhatsApp in 2011, well before Facebook agreed to buy the mobile-messaging company for $19 billion. Leone ranks No. 6, followed by colleagues Michael Moritz, Alfred Lin, Roelof Botha, Neil Shen, Michael Goguen, Bryan Schreier and Kui Zhou.

Consider Sequoia Venture XI Fund, which in 2003 raised $387 million from about 40 limited partners, chiefly universities and foundations. Eleven years later Venture XI has booked $3.6 billion in gains, or 41% a year, net of fees. Sequoia’s partners stand to collect 30%, or $1.1 billion, while limited partners get 70%, or another $2.5 billion. Look for even more outsize returns from Venture XIII (2010), which is up 88% a year so far, and Venture XIV (2012). The latter two will split the $3 billion or so Sequoia takes home from the WhatsApp deal. Add it up and Sequoia is turning its own partners into billionaires while keeping outside investors purring.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2014/03/26/inside-sequoia-capital-silicon-valleys-innovation-factory/

(Source: Forbes)

 

Apax Partners LLP stands to score a 10,000 percent gain on its 2005 investment in King Digital Entertainment Plc (KING)

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Buyout firm Apax Partners LLP stands to score a 10,000 percent gain on its 2005 investment in King Digital Entertainment Plc (KING) as the maker of smartphone game “Candy Crush Saga” prepares its initial public offering.

In one of its last venture capital deals before it abandoned that business, London-based Apax injected about $35 million into King, according to a person with knowledge of the deal, who asked not to be named because the terms are private. The games maker set terms last week for the IPO that would value it at as much as $7.6 billion. Apax’s stake could be worth $3.5 billion.

While Dublin-based King has developed more than 180 games in the past decade, “Candy Crush,” a puzzle game that features colored candies, fueled most of its growth. The potential windfall comes as venture capitalists are seeing their best returns since the late 1990s dot-com bubble. Twelve venture-backed companies went public in the U.S. last year with market capitalizations above $1 billion at the time of offering.

(Source: Bloomberg)

U.S. crude oil production in 2013 reaches highest level since 1989

By General

Total U.S. crude oil production averaged 7.5 million bbl/d in 2013, 967,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) higher than 2012 and the highest level of U.S. production since 1989. In December 2013, U.S. crude oil production reached 7.9 million barrels per day (bbl/d), according to EIA’s recently released December 2013 Petroleum Supply Monthly, an increase of 785,000 bbl/d (11%) compared with December 2012.

(Source: EIA)

What is HFT? Who is Vincent Viola and Virtu Financial?

By General

High-frequency trading (HFT) is a type of algorithmic trading, specifically the use of sophisticated technological tools and computer algorithms to rapidly trade securities. HFT uses proprietary trading strategies carried out by computers to move in and out of positions in seconds or fractions of a second. Firms focused on HFT rely on advanced computer systems, the processing speed of their trades and their access to the market.

As of 2009, studies suggested HFT firms accounted for 60-73% of all US equity trading volume, with that number falling to approximately 50% in 2012.

High-frequency traders, move in and out of short-term positions aiming to capture sometimes just a fraction of a cent in profit on every trade. HFT firms do not employ significant leverage, accumulate positions or hold their portfolios overnight; they typically compete against other HFTs, rather than long-term investors. As a result, HFT has a potential Sharpe ratio (a measure of risk and reward) thousands of times higher than traditional buy-and-hold strategies.

HFT may cause new types of serious risks to the financial system. Algorithmic and HFT were both found to have contributed to volatility in the May 6, 2010 Flash Crash, when high-frequency liquidity providers rapidly withdrew from the market. Several European countries have proposed curtailing or banning HFT due to concerns about volatility. Other complaints against HFT include the argument that some HFT firms scrape profits from investors when index funds rebalance their portfolios.

History

Profiting from speed advantages in the market is as old as trading itself. In the 17th century, the Rothschilds were able to arbitrage prices of the same security across country borders by using carrier pigeons to relay information before their competitors. HFT modernizes this concept using the latest communications technology.

High-frequency trading has taken place at least since 1999, after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) authorized electronic exchanges in 1998. At the turn of the 21st century, HFT trades had an execution time of several seconds, whereas by 2010 this had decreased to milli- and even microseconds. Until recently, high-frequency trading was a little-known topic outside the financial sector, with an article published by the New York Times in July 2009 being one of the first to bring the subject to the public’s attention. On September 2, 2013, Italy became the world’s first country to introduce a tax specifically targeted at HFT, charging a levy of 0.002% on equity transactions lasting less than 0.5 seconds.

In the United States, high-frequency trading firms represent 2% of the approximately 20,000 firms operating today, but account for 73% of all equity orders volume.

As HFT strategies become more widely used, it can be more difficult to deploy them profitably. According to an estimate from Frederi Viens of Purdue University, profits from HFT in the U.S. has been declining from an estimated peak of $5bn in 2009, to about $1.25bn in 2012.
Vincent “Vinnie” Viola, the founder of Virtu Financial Inc, is High Frequency Trading’s (HFT) first billionaire. He has an impressive track record of just “one losing trading day” during a 1,238 trading-day period.

How does he do it? The same way other High-Frequency Traders do it: front running trades and scalping countless billions and billions of fractions-of-pennies in the process.

High-frequency trading could soon officially mint its first billionaire.

Vincent “Vinnie” Viola, the founder of Virtu Financial Inc., could have his stake valued at around $2 billion once the company sells shares to the public, according to two people familiar with the matter.

In a filing Monday, Virtu said it hoped to raise $100 million in an initial public offering, though that figure is just a placeholder that could change based on investor demand. The company will likely seek to raise between $200 million and $250 million, according to the people. At the high end of that range, Virtu would be valued at about $3 billion.

Mr. Viola owns almost 70% of the company. Virtu is hoping that its stellar record – having just “one losing trading day” during a 1,238 trading-day period concluding at the end of December – will grab the interest of investors despite growing scrutiny of the high-frequency trading industry.

Virtu said in its prospectus that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission was “looking into our trading during the period from July 2011 to November 2013.”

The CFTC is examining Virtu’s “participation in certain incentive programs offered by exchanges or venues during that time period.” Virtu said it didn’t believe it violated any statute or regulatory provision.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has also said it is looking into the impact of high-frequency traders on market stability and fairness.

In addition, a French regulator, Autorité des Marchés Financiers, is examining the 2009 trading activities of a company that eventually became part of Virtu, the prospectus said.

Virtu declined to comment on the regulatory inquiries.

Mr. Viola gained attention last year after paying $240 million for control the Florida Panthers of the National Hockey League. He put his Manhattan mansion on the market for $114 million in December.

(Sources: Various, Wall Street Journal, New York Times)

U.S. Q4-2014 GDP growth revised down

By General

The downward revision to fourth-quarter GDP growth to 2.3% annualised, compared with the initial 3.2% estimate, was largely due to smaller positive contributions from durables consumption, net exports and inventories, whereas the positive contribution from business investment was actually revised higher. More generally, even a gain of only 2.3% is still impressive in a quarter when the Federal government shutdown resulted in a 5.6% drop in public sector spending, which subtracted more than 1.0% ppts from overall GDP growth.

 

Durable goods consumption is now estimated to have increased by a more modest 2.5% in the fourth quarter, down from the initial 5.9% estimate. With the bad weather hitting motor vehicle sales hard, we anticipate another modest gain in the first quarter. Net exports are now assumed to have added 1.0% ppt to GDP growth, rather than the initial contribution of 1.3%. Inventories added 0.1%, down from the initial 0.4% estimate.

 

The good news is that business investment increased by 7.3%, revised up from the initial estimate of a 3.8% gain. that gain helped to offset an 8.7% decline in residential investment, which was hit by the drop back in existing home sales that has reduced brokers’ commissions.

 

 

WhatsApp’s Sequoia VC Jim Goetz explains Facebook deal in 4 numbers

By General

Sequoia Capital, the only venture firm to invest in WhatsApp, offered four numbers on Wednesday that it says explain why Facebook just agreed to pay $19 billion for the instant messaging company.

Sequoia invested $8 million in the Mountain View company’s only publicly announced venture round in 2011 and partner Jim Goetz is the only VC on its board. TechCrunch cited sources on Wednesday that said Sequoia was involved in later rounds, too, that brought total funding to about $60 million.

That would mean Sequoia could be in line to get as much as $3 billion from the deal.

Here are the numbers Goetz offered in a blog post after the sale was announced:

— 450 million: That’s how many active users WhatsApp claims, a number that Sequoia says no other company has ever reached in such a short time. More than 1 million people a day are installing the app. “Incredibly, the number of daily active users of WhatsApp (compared to those who log in every month) has climbed to 72 percent. In contrast the industry standard is between 10 percent and 20 percent, and only a handful of companies top 50 percent.”

— 32: That’s how many engineers WhatsApp has. That means each WhatsApp developer supports 14 million active users, a ratio Sequoia says is unheard of in the industry.

— 1: That’s the number of dollars per year users pay after their first trial year of using the service., with no SMS messaging charges. Sequoia says this saves the typical user about $150 a year.

— Zero: That’s how much money WhatsApp invested in marketing. “The company doesn’t even employ a marketer or PR person,” Goetz wrote in his blog. “Yet like the world’s greatest brands, it’s created a strong emotional connection with consumers. All of WhatsApp’s growth has come from happy customers encouraging their friends to try the service.”

Goetz also sais that WhatsApp founder Jan Koum’s experience as a 16-year-old emigre from Ukraine when it was part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics helped determine how WhatsApp was developed.

“Jan’s childhood made him appreciate communication that was not bugged or taped. When he arrived in the U.S. as a 16-year-old immigrant living on food stamps, he had the extra incentive of wanting to stay in touch with his family in Russia and the Ukraine,” Goetz wrote. “All of this was top of mind for Jan when, after years of working together with his mentor Brian (Acton) at Yahoo, he began to build WhatsApp.”

(Source: Bizjournals)