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EWM Team

Mar 09
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Current Bull Market turns Five Year Old today

By Uncategorized

Here’s a breakdown of the rally, by the numbers:

151.3%: The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gains over the past five years, one of only six bull markets in history that have lasted this long.

782%: American Express Co.’s gain since March 2009, the biggest rally among the 30 Dow components. Walt Disney Co. is second, up 427%, and Home Depot Inc. rounds out the top three, up 352%.

47%: Exxon Mobil Corp.’s rally through the past five years, the worst-performing blue chip among components that spent all five years in the Dow.

177.6%: The S&P 500′s gain over the past five years.

50: The number of record highs for the broad S&P 500 over the past 12 months, including Friday’s record-setting close of 1878.04.

15.4: The S&P 500′s forward price-to-earnings ratio, up from 10.3 at the bear-market bottom, according to FactSet.

324.4%: The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector’s rally, the top performer among the index’s 10 large-cap sectors. Financials is second best, up 259%, and industrials is third, up 242%.

68%: The rally for the S&P”s telecommunications sector, the worst performing large-cap sector.

241.8%: The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite’s rally since the March 2009 bottom.

538.2%: Apple Inc.’s rally over the past five years.

250.6%: The gains for the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks off the bear-market low.

30.5%: The level of bearish sentiment — or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, according to the weekly survey conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors released Thursday. By comparison bearish sentiment reached a record level of70.3% in March 2009.

6.7%: The current unemployment rate, as per Friday’s jobs report. By comparison, the unemployment rate was 8.7% in March 2009.

 (Source: Wall Street Journal)
Mar 07
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Annual Change in U.S. Labor Productivity

By Uncategorized

Annual Change in U.S. Labor Productivity

 

Businesses struggled to squeeze much more out of their workers last year.

A downward revision to fourth-quarter productivity lowered the gain for all of 2013 to just 0.5%, the Labor Department said Thursday. The small increase ties with 2011 for the weakest annual improvement since 1993.

Labor productivity, or output per hour, strengthened early in the economic recovery as businesses grew more efficient. The measure increased 3.1% in 2009 and 3.3% in 2010, to mark the best annual improvement since 2003. But gains have slowed considerably since, measuring 0.5% in 2011 and 1.5% in 2012.

The recent weakness was most pronounced in nondurable manufacturing, a sector that includes the processing of food, chemicals and petroleum, as well as textile and paper production. Sector productivity slipped 0.1% last year because output improvements were more than offset by increased hours worked.

The easing of productivity is a bit of a double-edged sword. The weak gains hold back the economy’s potential to grow. But it also could signal that businesses are finding it more difficult to meet demand with their existing workforce and equipment.

If companies can’t squeeze more out of current workers, they might need to ramp up hiring and capital investment.

(Source: Wall Street Journal)

Feb 28
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U.S. Q4-2014 GDP growth revised down

By General

The downward revision to fourth-quarter GDP growth to 2.3% annualised, compared with the initial 3.2% estimate, was largely due to smaller positive contributions from durables consumption, net exports and inventories, whereas the positive contribution from business investment was actually revised higher. More generally, even a gain of only 2.3% is still impressive in a quarter when the Federal government shutdown resulted in a 5.6% drop in public sector spending, which subtracted more than 1.0% ppts from overall GDP growth.

 

Durable goods consumption is now estimated to have increased by a more modest 2.5% in the fourth quarter, down from the initial 5.9% estimate. With the bad weather hitting motor vehicle sales hard, we anticipate another modest gain in the first quarter. Net exports are now assumed to have added 1.0% ppt to GDP growth, rather than the initial contribution of 1.3%. Inventories added 0.1%, down from the initial 0.4% estimate.

 

The good news is that business investment increased by 7.3%, revised up from the initial estimate of a 3.8% gain. that gain helped to offset an 8.7% decline in residential investment, which was hit by the drop back in existing home sales that has reduced brokers’ commissions.

 

 

Feb 27
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Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index

By Uncategorized

Bloomberg U.S. Financial Condition Index Feb-2014

 

The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index, which is an overall gauge of the health of the financial and credit markets, reached an all-time high in late 2013 (the index started in 1994). This is a positive sign that financial markets have returned to solid ground after the shock of the financial crisis. Stable financial conditions help support economic growth.

(Source: Bloomberg)