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U.S. Inflation Watch-July 2014

By Inflation Watch

Consumer prices rose modestly in July, a sign inflation remains in check as the Federal Reserve winds down its bond-buying program. The price index for personal consumption expenditures–the Fed’s preferred inflation measure–increased 1.6% in July from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said Friday. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core prices climbed 1.5% year over year.

Both overall and core prices rose at the same annual pace in July as they did in June, suggesting inflation pressures remained at bay. Compared to a month earlier, each measure was up just 0.1%. Inflation continues to run below the 2% target the Fed sets as a gauge of price stability and healthy growth. The PCE price index has run below 2% for 27 consecutive months.

Still, prices have picked up since the start of the year, and the Fed projects they’ll steadily climb toward its target by the end of 2015. As recently as February, the index showed prices growing at just 1% year over year.

A separate measure also shows inflation in check. The Labor Department’s consumer-price index rose 2% in July from a month earlier. In May and June, the index had risen 2.1% year over year.

The CPI historically runs about half a percentage point higher than the PCE price index, which employs different statistical methods.

(Source: WSJ, BLS)

Euro Zone’s Deflationary Problems

By Inflation Watch

Is the Euro Zone dealing with the same deflationary issues that the Fed was grappling with a few years ago?

With the drop in headline euro-zone inflation to 0.3% in August from 0.4% in July, calls for further ECB action—including large purchases of sovereign bonds—are getting louder. Clearly, inflation is far adrift of the ECB’s target of “below, but close to” 2%.

But once again, virtually all of the decline is due to volatile prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. Excluding those, euro-zone inflation rose to 0.9% from 0.8%. Of the decline in headline inflation from 1.3% a year ago, nearly 90% is attributable to moves in energy and food prices.

With core inflation stable, it is hard to see deflation as a threat, even if market-based measures of inflation expectations have proved wobbly recently. More relevant in any case is the attitude of consumers and entrepreneurs to inflation. If lower food and energy prices are proving a cushion for stretched individuals and businesses, then that may be no bad thing. But the longer low inflation persists, the more it may become a problem if, for instance, it starts to drive wage settlements.

(Source: WSJ)

New Collective Investment Fund Brings Endowment Investment Philosophy™/Liquid Alternatives to Defined Contribution Plans

By News

APPLETON, WIS. — Alta Trust Company has partnered with ETF Model Solutions, LLC. to launch the Endowment Collective Fund (CUSIP: 26923F105). The Endowment Collective Investment Fund (CIF) seeks to improve risk-adjusted returns of traditional two-dimensional portfolios of stocks and bonds by adding alternative investments, such as private equity, hedge strategies and real assets to create a 3-dimensional portfolio. ™

Managers of university endowments, pension, and defined benefit plans have historically utilized lower-correlated alternative investments to improve the risk-adjusted returns of their portfolios. ETF Model Solutions, through the Endowment CIF, now brings the Endowment Investment Philosophy™ to the defined contribution plan space. However, rather than private placements or limited partnerships, the Fund uses liquid alternative investments, such as exchange-traded funds and mutual funds to obtain its alternative asset allocations.

ETF Model Solutions believes that the 3-dimensional Endowment CIF offers 4 major benefits when compared to most target date or balanced funds: (1) added protection for the Plan Sponsor, as both the trustee and the manager of the CIF serve in a fiduciary capacity; (2) reduced portfolio volatility than portfolios with greater equity allocations due to its hedge strategy holdings; (3) protection from inflation due a greater allocation to real assets, such as commodities, precious metals, real estate and infrastructure investments; and, (4) lower interest rate risk due to a smaller allocation to fixed income investments.

The Endowment CIF utilizes a core-satellite portfolio construction with low-cost, cap-weighted equity and fixed income ETFs comprising the core allocation of the asset class, with fundamentally-weighted funds utilized in an attempt to gain alpha. The strategically-managed Endowment CIF is presently targeted to an allocation of 40% global equity, 20% global fixed income and 40% liquid alternative investments.

Alta Trust maintains selling agreements with most major retirement plan platforms, thus plan advisors can offer the Endowment CIF to their Plan Sponsor clients through their existing platform relationships. Plan Sponsors can add the Endowment CIF to their retirement plans through a simple participation agreement, while maintaining their current investment options as well as their existing advisor/TPA/recordkeeping relationships.

CIFs are pooled investment funds available only to qualified retirement plans such as defined contribution 401(k) and defined benefit plans and are regulated by state and federal organizations, such as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. CIFs are priced daily through the NSCC, just like mutual funds.

ETF Model Solutions, LLC. (Fund Investment Manager) is a Third Party ETF Strategist that specializes in creating customizable ETF-based asset allocation models. ETF Model Solutions is co-creator of the Endowment Index™ calculated by Nasdaq OMX® (Symbol: ENDOW).

Alta Trust (Fund Trustee) is an innovative financial services firm that acts as trustee for collective investment funds which feature unique money managers. The professionals at Alta Trust have been working with qualified plans for over three decades and provide daily oversight of all fund trading activity and accounting, as well as annual auditing of the fund to assure accurate and reliable account balances.

Disclosure

Alta Trust Company is a South Dakota chartered trust company that acts as trustee of the Funds. Collective Investment Funds are bank maintained trust funds and are not registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Declaration of Trust for the Trust describes the procedures for admission to and withdrawal from a Fund. The Declaration of Trust and the Fund’s Employee Benefit Summary should be read in conjunction with this information. The information contained in this communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide legal or tax advice. Before investing in any Fund, Alta Trust recommends that potential investors consider the Fund’s investment objective, strategies, risks and expenses. We recommend that investors consult with their financial, legal and tax advisers prior to investment in any fund. Potential investors in any Fund may obtain a copy of the Employee Benefit Summary from the plan sponsor or from Alta Trust or ETF Model Solutions, LLC.

 

Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee

 

Investor Alert: 10 Red Flags That an Unregistered Offering May Be a Scam

By General

Aug. 4, 2014

The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy is issuing this Investor Alert to help investors identify potentially fraudulent unregistered offerings.

Under the federal securities laws, a company may not offer or sell securities unless the offering has been registered with the SEC or an exemption to registration is available.  If the offering is not registered, it is often called a private placement or unregistered offering. Generally speaking, unregistered offerings are not subject to some of the laws and regulations that are designed to protect investors, such as disclosure requirements that apply to registered offerings.  Many companies engage in legitimate unregistered offerings to raise funds from investors.  Fraudsters, however, may also use unregistered offerings to conduct investment scams.

If you are presented with an opportunity to invest in an unregistered offering, in addition to thoroughly researching an investment—and the investment professional selling it—you should be on the lookout for these common signs of potential fraud when you are thinking about investing in an unregistered offering.

  1. Claims of High Returns with Little or No Risk

Promises of high returns, with little or no risk, are classic warning signs of fraud. Every investment carries some degree of risk, and the potential for greater returns comes with greater risk.  You should be skeptical of any investment that is said to have no risks.

  1. Unregistered Investment Professionals

Unregistered persons who sell securities perpetrate many of the securities frauds that target retail investors.  Always check whether the person offering to sell you an investment is registered and properly licensed, even if you know him or her personally.  An investment professional’s registration, background and qualifications are available through the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website and FINRA’sBrokerCheck.

  1. Aggressive Sales Tactics

Scam artists often pitch an investment as a “once-in-a-lifetime” offer to create a false sense of urgency.  Resist the pressure to invest quickly and take the time you need to investigate thoroughly before sending money or signing any agreements.  Any reputable investment professional or promoter will let investors take their time to do research and will not pressure for an immediate decision.

  1. Problems with Sales Documents

Avoid an investment if the salesperson will not provide you with anything in writing.  A legitimate private offering will usually be described in a private placement memorandum, orPPM.  Similarly, sloppy offering documents that contain typographical, spelling, or other errors can be a red flag that the investment could be a scam.

  1. No Net Worth or Income Requirements 

The federal securities laws limit many private securities offerings to accredited investors.  Be highly suspicious of anyone who offers you private investment opportunities without asking about your net worth or income.

Accredited investor.  An individual is considered an accredited investor, if he or she:

  • earned income that exceeded $200,000 (or $300,000 together with a spouse) in each of the prior two years, and reasonably expects the same for the current year, OR
  • has a net worth over $1 million, either alone or together with a spouse (excluding the value of the person’s primary residence or any loans secured by the residence (up to the value of the residence)).
  1. No One Else Seems to be Involved 

Be cautious if no one besides the salesperson appears to be involved in the deal. Usually, brokerage firms, accountants, law firms, or other third parties are involved in a private offering.  Similarly, be cautious if you are told not to contact someone who is supposedly involved with the investment.

  1. Sham or Virtual Offices 

A company may establish a mailing address within a state in which it has no legitimate operations in a fraudulent attempt to qualify for an exemption from registration.  If the company’s corporate address is a mail drop and you are unable to verify that the company has any actual operating presence (such as a headquarters building, plant or other physical operations) within the same state, be wary.

  1. Not in Good Standing

Any company, including limited liability companies and limited partnerships, seeking your investment should be listed as active or in good standing in the state where it was incorporated or formed.  Every company must file and pay annual taxes in order to maintain its good standing.  Each state, usually under the offices of its Secretary of State, maintains a publicly accessible online database of its companies.  You should be wary if the company you are being asked to invest in can’t be found in the records of the state it claims to have been formed in or if it’s not listed as active or in good standing.

  1. Unsolicited Investment Offers

You should be very careful when you receive an unsolicited – meaning you did not ask for it – investment offer.  Whether from a total stranger or from a friend, trusted co-worker, or even family member, always consider the motivation of the person offering the investment.  Fraudsters often exploit the trust and friendship that exist in groups of people who have something in common, sometimes called affinity fraud.  You should be especially suspicious if you are told to keep the investment opportunity confidential or a secret.

  1.  Suspicious or Unverifiable Biographies of Managers or Promoters

To appear legitimate, fraudsters may represent that they have had a successful career in the relevant industry when nothing could be further from the truth.  Don’t just take the promoter’s word on his or her background.  Try to independently verify any claims, including by asking for references or conducting a simple Internet search.  On the other hand, even if the promoter is truthful about his or her background, if the promoter appears to lack relevant experience, consider this a red flag as well.

What You Can Do to Help Protect Yourself

  • Check the background of the investment professional.

Checking the background of an investment professional is easy and free.  Details on an investment professional’s background, qualifications and disciplinary record, if any, are available through the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website and FINRA’sBrokerCheck.  If you have any questions on checking the background of an investment professional, call the SEC’s toll-free investor assistance line at (800) 732-0330.  You also should search the Internet for the investment professional’s name and past business experience.  Don’t be afraid to ask questions about what you find.

  • Understand the Investment Strategy

There are a wide variety of investments.  Make sure you understand the level of risk involved and think about whether the investment is suitable for your personal investing goals, time horizons and risk tolerance.  Investment pitches that are vague about who is involved in the transaction or where the money is going could be a red flag.  Salespeople may try to explain away this lack of specificity by stating that the details are too technical or complex for non-experts to understand.  If a promoter is unable to provide answers to the questions you ask, you should take that as a warning sign.  If you can’t understand it, consider carefully whether the investment is right for you.

  • Be Aware of Tactics of Con Artists and Fraudsters

Research shows that con-artists are experts at the art of persuasion, often using a variety of influence tactics tailored to the vulnerabilities of their victims.  Common tactics includephantom riches (dangling the prospect of wealth, enticing you with something you want but can’t have), source credibility (trying to build credibility by claiming to be with a reputable firm or to have a special credential or experience), social consensus (leading you to believe that other savvy investors have already invested), reciprocity (offering to do a small favor for you in return for a big favor), and scarcity (creating a false sense of urgency by claiming limited supply).

  • Ask Questions

Unbiased resources are available to help you make informed investing decisions. Whether checking the background of an investment professional, researching an investment, or learning about new products or scams, unbiased information can be a significant advantage for investing wisely.  A good starting point for this information is the SEC’s Investor.govwebsite.

Additional Resources Available on SEC.gov

For basic investment guidance, see our publication, Ask Questions.

For guidance on choosing an investment professional, review our Investor Bulletin, Top Tips for Selecting a Financial Professional.

To learn more about unregistered securities offerings, read:

Contact the SEC

If you have questions about checking the license or registration status of an individual or firm, submit a question to the SEC or call the SEC’s toll-free investor assistance line at (800) 732-0330 (dial 1-202-551-6551 if calling from outside of the United States).

Report a problem concerning your investments or report possible securities fraud to the SEC.

Stay Informed

Attending Matrix/Broadridge GetConnected 2014 Conference

By General

Tim Landolt, Managing Director of our sister company ETF Model Solutions, LLC will be attending the above conference next week. If you are interested in learning more about our Endowment Index™ and/or our Endowment Collective Fund for the 401(k) market, please reach out to him at the conference.

Matrix Financial Solutions’ (part of Broadridge Financial Solutions) GetConnected 2014 conference is in Keystone, CO from August 17-20 and will be attended by 750  financial professionals, including TPAs, record keepers, investment advisers, trust department managers, bank operations managers, portfolio managers and financial news media serving the retirement/401k market.  ETF Model Solutions’ Endowment Collective Investment Fund, which offers a unique alternative solution to target date and balanced funds, is available to defined benefit and defined contribution/401(k) plans is available through through Matrix’ MG Trust platform.

Mutual Funds investing in Early Stage venture backed companies

By Venture Capital

Is this a new trend? Or are the public markets not offering enough investment opportunities with favorable risk-return trade offs?

Following blurb copied from Fortune/TermSheet:

Last Tuesday’s big deal was that cancer immunotherapy startup Juno Therapeutics had raised $134 million in Series B funding from “ten public mutual funds and healthcare-focused funds.” This came less than one year after the Seattle-based company had raised $176 million from a group of venture capital funds, Jeff Bezos and strategic partners like The Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and the Seattle Children’s Research Institute.

Now we’ve learned that Fidelity Investments led the new round, making it one of the mutual fund manager’s earliest-stage private deals to date (it notably led Uber’s recent round). No word yet on the other nine participants.

(Source: Fortune)

Q2-2014 Productivity Numbers

By General

Q2 productivity increased at a 2.5%; annual rate, almost one point higher than expected. But last quarter’s productivity was revised downward by 1.3%. to minus 4.5%, the lowest in 33 years. Could it have been all those businesses that were open but not selling anything because of the terrible weather last winter? The worrisome part of the release is that the rebound in Q2 was puny: 2.5% is just 3 tenths above the post-World War II average. In fact productivity growth over the last 3 years has fallen to 0.8%, the lowest since the early 1990s. That, more than anything explains the stagnant wages and real income of workers. The reasons for this decline are not clear: it could be due to greater regulation, more part-time workers with lower productivity, the lack of skills that new workers bring to the workforce, or broader factors such as the lack of technological breakthroughs that increase output. In the past lulls in productivity have been followed by rebounds.

If jobs continue to grow this could portend the onset of wage inflation. Something that we need to watch very closely.

(Source: WisdomTree, Jeremy J. Siegel)

Questions to ask your Wealth Manager/Financial Advisor

By General

Following are some questions I suggest asking a potential financial adviser or wealth manager before deciding if you feel they have earned the right to talk to you about your money:

  1. Do you use a recognized and independent third-party custodian to hold your assets?
  2.  How long have you worked in financial services and in what capacity?
  3. What is your academic training–undergrad and grad school?
  4. Have you earned either your CFA, CFP, CAIA and/or CPA designations?
  5. What kind of continuing education are you engaging in to stay abreast of developments in your field?
  6. Do you utilize an active or passive/evidenced-based approach & why?
  7. What fees are your clients charged–all in, from your fee down to embedded fees such as markups on fixed income purchases to management fees on recommended funds and any platform/custodial fees?
  8. Is the fee I am paying the only compensation you receive?
  9. What are the financial consequences of cancelling your program and selling out of the investments I have made with you–a

    re there any lockup periods, surrender charges, withdrawal penalties, account closing fees or any restrictions to move my account at any time?

  10. Do you report a client-specific time-weighted return each quarter?
  11. Do you live a frugal lifestyle?
  12. Do you work under a suitability or fiduciary standard?

Why Endowment Funds Like Yale’s Are Doing Just Fine – Prateek Mehrotra

By News

The Ivory Tower geniuses atop the country’s most respected endowments have recently received a firestorm of criticism for failing to produce outsized returns during the current bull market. But investors must accept that all investment strategies experience periods of underperformance and it’s hardly a reason for endowments to hang their heads.

Investors tend to have short memories and forget that these same endowments outperformed the stock market over the past decade with much less volatility.

Looking at the Yale Endowment investment policy’s achievements, Prateek Mehrotra, MBA, CFA®, CAIA® points out that their main goal is to “diversify across seven asset classes that all act independent of each other in different economic environments.” This leads to more stability and the ability for endowments to generate outsized returns that operate with an extremely long time horizon. Taking advantage of special situations, an ability available due to the diversified portfolio, allows them to distinguish an absolute return strategy and has been a factor in their growth by more than six fold over two decades.

To read the full article:

http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/07/31/why-endowment-funds-like-yales-are-doing-just-fine