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China’s Inflation Slows More Than Estimated

By Inflation Watch

Consumer inflation in China moderated to an 18-month low and the decline in factory-gate prices persisted, giving the government more scope to loosen policies if a growth slowdown deepens.

The consumer price index rose 1.8 percent from a year earlier in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing. That compares with the median estimate of 2.1 percent in a Bloomberg News survey and a 2.4 percent gain in March. The producer-price index fell 2 percent, the 26th straight decline, after a 2.3 percent drop the previous month.

Today’s data add to signs that domestic demand remains muted, with falling commodity prices exacerbating overcapacity in industries including steel and cement. The lack of inflationary pressure will allow the People’s Bank of China to relax monetary policy to support the economy if Premier Li Keqiang’s full-year goal of about 7.5 percent is threatened.

(Source: Bloomberg)

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey-Wk ending 5/7/2014

By Investor Sentiment

 

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.

Survey Results

Sentiment Survey
ResultsWeek ending 5/7/2014   Data represents what direction members feel the stock market will be in the next 6    months.
Bullish  28.3%
down 1.4
Neutral  43.0%
up 2.2
Bearish  28.7%
down 0.8
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.


Change from last week:
 Bullish: -1.4
Neutral: +2.2
Bearish: -0.8

Long-Term Average:
 Bullish: 39.0%
Neutral: 30.5%
Bearish: 30.5%
Here is what Jon Najarian had to say about this high 43% Neutral position:

It’s the highest level of neutrality in more than 10 years.

It takes quite a bit to convince individual investors to not have an opinion about the market but that’s what the last two months have managed to do. “The market is just grinding,” says optionMONSTER’s Jon Najarian in the attached clip. “It’s been very easy to be in the wrong individual stocks.”

Case in point for Najarian is Twitter (TWTR) which he started buying on the way down, defying his own discipline and incurring a loss prior to a much-needed bounce (which came in shortly after this segment was taped). “The people that can’t decide, the ‘meh’ crowd, that’s probably been the right decision.”

As for the market as a whole history suggests a sharp move follows peaks in neutral sentiment. Going back to 2005 AAII neutral sentiment has pushed to 38 on 4 distinct prior occasions (August 2013, December 2011, November 2010 and December 2011). Looking at the S&P 500 (^GSPC) a month later showed greater than 4% moves each time over the subsequent 30 days.

Unfortunately for traders the back-test doesn’t give a clear sign. Three of the 1-month moves were up with one sharp drop. Still it’s a safe bet that American investors aren’t going to stay neutral for long. Look for Mr. Market to knock people into the bullish or bearish camps in short order.

(Source: AAII, Yahoo Finance)

Launch of “Endowment Index”

By Endowment Index™

Financial Products News #2014 – 29
NASDAQ OMX Announces Launch of the Endowment Index Effective May 19, 2014

Markets Impacted:

  • All Markets

Data Feeds Impacted:

  • NASDAQ OMX Global Index Data Service (GIDS 2.0)
  • NASDAQ Global Index Watch (GIW)

Contact Information:

What you need to know:

Effective Monday, May 19, 2014, NASDAQ OMX will begin disseminating the Endowment IndexTM(Symbol: ENDOW) on the NASDAQ OMX Global Index Data ServiceSM (GIDS 2.0).


What is the new Index?

The Endowment IndexTM is an objective benchmark for investors who implement a three dimensional portfolio that incorporates alternative investments.  This investable index is used for portfolio comparison, investment analysis, research and benchmarking purposes by fiduciaries such as trustees, portfolio managers, consultants and advisors to endowments, foundations, trusts, DB/DC plans, pension plans and individual investors.  The Endowment IndexTM has been co-created by Endowment Wealth Management, Inc. and ETF Model Solutions, LLC.

How is the Index disseminated?

Effective Monday, May 19, 2014, data recipients will receive real-time index information from the proprietary GIDS 2.0 data feed with the following attributes:

Instrument ID Instrument Name Currency Frequency FP Type Brand
ENDOW Endowment Index USD 1S I CI

 

In addition to the real-time tick messages, NASDAQ OMX will support the following directory messages on GIDS 2.0:

  • Equities Summary (Message Type F): Disseminated at the end of the U.S. and European trading session to relay the summary of the current trading day’s activity for an equity index.
  • Index Directory (Message Type R): Disseminated at the start of each day to relay basic index information.

Will the components and weightings data be made available?

Yes. For access and more information on the Endowment  on NASDAQ Global Index Watch (GIW), please contact NASDAQ OMX Global Data Sales.

Where can I find additional information?

For questions about NASDAQ OMX Index products, please contact NASDAQ OMX Global Indexes at +1 301 978 8284.


Subscribe to Email Alerts:
NASDAQ OMX is offering customers the ability to self select news delivery across various NASDAQ OMX markets. Create and maintain a profile for updating alert preferences and contact information. Visit the enrollment form on the NASDAQ Trader website and sign up today! Please note that if you choose to unsubscribe from an email list, you may no longer receive potentially critical emails from the NASDAQ Stock Market regarding NASDAQ’s trading and data products, regulatory issues or marketplace initiatives.

About the NASDAQ OMX Group:

The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. is the world’s largest exchange company. It delivers trading, exchange technology and public company services across six continents, with more than 3,600 listed companies. NASDAQ OMX offers multiple capital raising solutions to companies around the globe, including its U.S. listings market, NASDAQ OMX Nordic, NASDAQ OMX Baltic, NASDAQ OMX First North, and the U.S. 144A sector. The company offers trading across multiple asset classes including equities, derivatives, debt, commodities, structured products and exchange-traded funds. NASDAQ OMX technology supports the operations of over 70 exchanges, clearing organizations and central securities depositories in more than 50 countries. NASDAQ OMX Nordic and NASDAQ OMX Baltic are not legal entities but describe the common offering from NASDAQ OMX exchanges in Helsinki, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Iceland, Tallinn, Riga, and Vilnius. For more information about NASDAQ OMX, visit www.nasdaqomx.com.

US Dollar Index-DXY

By Inflation Watch

US Dollar Index

Is the US dollar headed for a fall despite positive economic data recently?

Stronger than expected non-farm payrolls and a surging composite PMI data were not enough to send real interest rates higher. Treasury yields have fallen due to Ukrainian tensions and weaker than expected PMI data from China. The net effect of these developments has been a weaker US dollar, which looks to be in danger of falling to its lowest levels in two years on a trade-weighted basis.

EWM Number of the Day: 5/7/2014

By Uncategorized

$4 billion

The sum wiped off the market value of Twitter on Tuesday as the six-month “lockup” expired, offering early investors as well as employees their first big chance to sell their stock.

(Source: Wall Street Journal)

1Q-2014 US GDP Growth Estimate

By Uncategorized

1Q-2014 US GDP Growth Estimate

The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product (GDP) only advanced at a 0.1 percent annualized rate in the first three months of the year. According to the Wall Street Journal, economists on average were anticipating at least 1.1 percent growth. While this proved to be one of the weakest quarters for economic growth in the last five years, there were some bright spots in the report, such as total consumer spending rising by 3 percent. Most of the drag was a result of a 2.1 percent decline from business investment spending, which is being attributed to poor weather conditions. While weak business spending could prove to be temporary, the most concerning part of the report was that U.S. exports declined by 7.6 percent, the largest decline since the recession. This portion of the report should be met with some concern considering weakness in other economies around the world could end up being a rather large deterrent to U.S. economic growth, just as domestic consumption is starting to show some durability.

(Source: Wall Street Journal)

 

 

EWM Number of the Day: 5/6/2014

By Uncategorized

$2,237

Average U.S. annual household spending on telephone, pay-TV and Internet service in 2012—suggesting that consumers have a lot on the line as three potential telecom deals hove into view.

This is a big peeve of mine. My family actually spends twice the above amount if you include cell phones! And we thought we had deflation in technology and communications!

(Source: Wall Street Journal)